China-USA: The Real Fake Détente

There was something unusual, almost theatrical, about the image that went round the world on Wednesday: Donald Trump himself, striding across the tarmac at Andrews Air Force Base to greet Xi Jinping as he stepped off his plane. A rare gesture, almost a break with protocol, given that American presidents typically prefer to await their counterparts in the plush comfort of the White House. But this time, Washington clearly wanted to make an impression.

For three days, the American capital donned its most formal attire to receive the Chinese president and his wife, Peng Liyuan: a red carpet unfurled across the tarmac, an honour guard standing rigidly to attention, a fly-past of fighter jets over Washington's skies, and, as the crowning touch, a state dinner hosted by Melania Trump herself. A display fit for the occasion the first visit by a Chinese leader to the federal capital in over a decade.

Behind the pageantry, the real business was taking place elsewhere, in the hushed rooms where the trade truce between the two economic giants was being hammered out. It was secured within the first few hours: Washington and Beijing have agreed to extend their tariff ceasefire until mid-January, sparing themselves, for a few months at least, a fresh round of tit-for-tat duties.

truce, not a peace and everyone knows it, for beneath the diplomatic veneer, a simmering cold war continues to shape relations between the two capitals.

This underlying rivalry is perhaps most visible over Iran. Xi Jinping used his time in Washington to call for restraint, urging his host to favour diplomacy over escalation. The response was swift: from Tehran, President Massoud Pezeshkian batted the ball back into America's court, arguing it was up to Washington to end the hostilities. A telling exchange, given that Beijing no longer disguises its de facto backing of Iran much as it has long done, more openly still, with Vladimir Putin's Russia.

And there lies the crux of the matter: by aligning itself with Moscow and Tehran, China is sketching the outlines of a bloc that stands in near-direct opposition to the order Washington seeks to uphold. On Ukraine, Beijing happily casts itself as a would-be mediator, all the while maintaining close economic and diplomatic ties with the Kremlin an ambiguity lost on no one in Washington, and one that breeds suspicion rather than easing it.

But the quietest theatre of this rivalry is undoubtedly Africa. While the spotlight falls on handshakes in Washington, another, far more discreet battle is being waged across the African continent.

China has poured billions of dollars into the region, weaving its influence deep into the ground itself: it holds substantial sway over mineral resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Guinea, has secured control of strategic ports, and has established a lasting foothold in the oil sector. A sprawling influence that Washington views with growing unease and one it is now, with mixed success, attempting to counter.

This multi-fronted cold war diplomatic and strategic backing for Washington's rivals in Ukraine and the Middle East, economic and mineral rivalry in Africa, technological competition even within artificial intelligence laboratories forms the true backdrop to the Washington summit. On that last front especially, the contest shows no sign of easing: the two capitals are locked in a breakneck race to dominate AI, even as the very tech firms driving that race, wary of the risks they are helping to create, now call for tighter regulation of their own creations.

A race against the clock on one side, calls for caution on the other: the picture rather neatly sums up the spirit of the moment. Innovation has never seemed to move so fast, nor the unease it provokes so widely shared — including among those who stand to profit most from it.